Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day

  • (blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

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Dane

Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

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Wisconsin

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Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

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Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 06 2020 2184 23558 69 7 344 534
October 07 2020 2211 24159 69 8 324 508
October 08 2020 2264 24352 71 8 324 530
October 09 2020 2308 24857 72 8 339 532
October 10 2020 2341 25137 74 8 341 501
October 11 2020 2393 25289 75 8 377 506
October 12 2020 2400 26190 76 8 342 460
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 1.0 2.6% 9 0.08% 15 0.13%
10-19 1 7.6 18.1% 62 0.46% 81 0.6%
20-29 1 7.4 22.8% 78 0.37% 117 0.56%
30-39 0 4.4 12.3% 42 0.31% 59 0.43%
40-49 2 5.1 13.7% 47 0.45% 56 0.54%
50-59 0 3.7 11.7% 40 0.32% 58 0.46%
60-69 1 3.4 10.2% 35 0.3% 42 0.36%
70+ 2 2.7 8.5% 29 0.28% 32 0.31%
All ages 7 35.4 100% 342 0.33% 460 0.44%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 06 2020 667 15620 30 0 145 185
October 07 2020 698 15761 29 0 152 209
October 08 2020 730 15930 30 0 175 232
October 09 2020 763 16066 30 0 196 246
October 10 2020 787 16174 31 0 202 265
October 11 2020 812 16245 32 0 217 266
October 12 2020 833 16461 32 0 223 278
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.7 3.6% 8 0.1% 14 0.18%
10-19 2 1.3 4.5% 10 0.12% 15 0.18%
20-29 6 4.6 16.1% 36 0.51% 44 0.62%
30-39 5 4.6 18.4% 41 0.49% 49 0.58%
40-49 4 5.1 17.9% 40 0.52% 44 0.57%
50-59 3 4.3 15.7% 35 0.36% 44 0.45%
60-69 0 2.7 10.8% 24 0.29% 27 0.32%
70+ 1 2.7 12.1% 27 0.38% 38 0.53%
All ages 21 26.3 100% 223 0.34% 278 0.43%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 06 2020 528 9157 26 6 72 106
October 07 2020 535 9161 28 6 69 110
October 08 2020 553 9194 28 6 75 116
October 09 2020 575 9300 28 6 93 131
October 10 2020 598 9317 29 6 108 142
October 11 2020 618 9321 29 6 120 152
October 12 2020 631 9335 29 6 127 153

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 06 2020 3373 26864 55 6 383 675
October 07 2020 3399 27309 58 8 352 614
October 08 2020 3441 28170 59 8 386 603
October 09 2020 3486 28692 60 8 391 540
October 10 2020 3516 28683 62 10 386 526
October 11 2020 3535 28681 62 10 330 488
October 12 2020 3566 28705 62 10 321 511
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.6 1.2% 4 0.03% 6 0.05%
10-19 10 5.0 17.1% 55 0.33% 96 0.58%
20-29 2 8.7 29% 93 0.44% 147 0.69%
30-39 6 3.9 11.5% 37 0.27% 62 0.46%
40-49 3 2.7 7.5% 24 0.18% 42 0.31%
50-59 3 3.4 10% 32 0.23% 53 0.37%
60-69 3 4.0 11.2% 36 0.25% 54 0.38%
70+ 4 4.6 12.5% 40 0.31% 51 0.39%
All ages 31 32.9 100% 321 0.27% 511 0.43%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 06 2020 10671 203188 393 43 1183 1724
October 07 2020 10734 204606 400 43 1127 1694
October 08 2020 10841 206251 405 43 1078 1638
October 09 2020 11035 207665 417 43 1178 1690
October 10 2020 11240 208579 421 43 1111 1752
October 11 2020 11421 208622 426 43 1220 1814
October 12 2020 11585 209269 430 43 1368 1822
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 7 7.7 5.2% 71 0.12% 92 0.15%
10-19 18 21.4 14.5% 198 0.28% 271 0.38%
20-29 29 33.0 22% 301 0.29% 410 0.39%
30-39 27 25.1 15.9% 218 0.28% 302 0.39%
40-49 26 21.9 13.5% 185 0.28% 238 0.36%
50-59 28 20.0 13.2% 180 0.27% 246 0.37%
60-69 20 15.1 9.9% 136 0.25% 165 0.3%
70+ 9 8.7 5.8% 79 0.16% 98 0.2%
All ages 164 153.0 100% 1368 0.25% 1822 0.33%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 06 2020 136379 1482116 7810 1399 22734 32209
October 07 2020 138698 1493304 7951 1415 22836 32766
October 08 2020 141830 1506828 8061 1424 24242 33506
October 09 2020 144818 1518662 8199 1440 24863 33990
October 10 2020 147560 1530306 8319 1458 25286 33915
October 11 2020 150236 1537877 8398 1465 25075 34374
October 12 2020 152192 1545692 8454 1474 24286 34604
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 70 83.6 3.3% 808 0.13% 1138 0.18%
10-19 186 237.0 9.3% 2259 0.3% 3392 0.45%
20-29 340 449.9 17.7% 4302 0.57% 6278 0.83%
30-39 291 406.3 15.8% 3839 0.51% 5413 0.72%
40-49 291 384.4 15% 3654 0.52% 5153 0.74%
50-59 338 418.0 16.6% 4040 0.5% 5781 0.71%
60-69 240 316.0 12.4% 3014 0.4% 4187 0.55%
70+ 200 252.4 9.8% 2370 0.37% 3262 0.51%
All ages 1956 2547.6 100% 24286 0.42% 34604 0.59%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
44 59.5 55.9 35.4 40.3 8.1%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
43 26.3 13.9 16.1%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
33.8 15.6 8.7 37.1%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
43.2 58 69.1 32.9 52.4 10.2%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
33.3 38.1 39.5 153 142.6 12.3%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
59.4 44.8 82.9 2547.6 2405.3 19.6%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Wisconsin

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 18.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.37 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-02 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1621"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red