Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 06 2020 | 2184 | 23558 | 69 | 7 | 344 | 534 |
| October 07 2020 | 2211 | 24159 | 69 | 8 | 324 | 508 |
| October 08 2020 | 2264 | 24352 | 71 | 8 | 324 | 530 |
| October 09 2020 | 2308 | 24857 | 72 | 8 | 339 | 532 |
| October 10 2020 | 2341 | 25137 | 74 | 8 | 341 | 501 |
| October 11 2020 | 2393 | 25289 | 75 | 8 | 377 | 506 |
| October 12 2020 | 2400 | 26190 | 76 | 8 | 342 | 460 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.6% | 9 | 0.08% | 15 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 7.6 | 18.1% | 62 | 0.46% | 81 | 0.6% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 7.4 | 22.8% | 78 | 0.37% | 117 | 0.56% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 4.4 | 12.3% | 42 | 0.31% | 59 | 0.43% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 5.1 | 13.7% | 47 | 0.45% | 56 | 0.54% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 3.7 | 11.7% | 40 | 0.32% | 58 | 0.46% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3.4 | 10.2% | 35 | 0.3% | 42 | 0.36% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.7 | 8.5% | 29 | 0.28% | 32 | 0.31% |
| All ages | 7 | 35.4 | 100% | 342 | 0.33% | 460 | 0.44% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 06 2020 | 667 | 15620 | 30 | 0 | 145 | 185 |
| October 07 2020 | 698 | 15761 | 29 | 0 | 152 | 209 |
| October 08 2020 | 730 | 15930 | 30 | 0 | 175 | 232 |
| October 09 2020 | 763 | 16066 | 30 | 0 | 196 | 246 |
| October 10 2020 | 787 | 16174 | 31 | 0 | 202 | 265 |
| October 11 2020 | 812 | 16245 | 32 | 0 | 217 | 266 |
| October 12 2020 | 833 | 16461 | 32 | 0 | 223 | 278 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.7 | 3.6% | 8 | 0.1% | 14 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 1.3 | 4.5% | 10 | 0.12% | 15 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 4.6 | 16.1% | 36 | 0.51% | 44 | 0.62% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 4.6 | 18.4% | 41 | 0.49% | 49 | 0.58% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 5.1 | 17.9% | 40 | 0.52% | 44 | 0.57% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4.3 | 15.7% | 35 | 0.36% | 44 | 0.45% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 2.7 | 10.8% | 24 | 0.29% | 27 | 0.32% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.7 | 12.1% | 27 | 0.38% | 38 | 0.53% |
| All ages | 21 | 26.3 | 100% | 223 | 0.34% | 278 | 0.43% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 06 2020 | 528 | 9157 | 26 | 6 | 72 | 106 |
| October 07 2020 | 535 | 9161 | 28 | 6 | 69 | 110 |
| October 08 2020 | 553 | 9194 | 28 | 6 | 75 | 116 |
| October 09 2020 | 575 | 9300 | 28 | 6 | 93 | 131 |
| October 10 2020 | 598 | 9317 | 29 | 6 | 108 | 142 |
| October 11 2020 | 618 | 9321 | 29 | 6 | 120 | 152 |
| October 12 2020 | 631 | 9335 | 29 | 6 | 127 | 153 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 06 2020 | 3373 | 26864 | 55 | 6 | 383 | 675 |
| October 07 2020 | 3399 | 27309 | 58 | 8 | 352 | 614 |
| October 08 2020 | 3441 | 28170 | 59 | 8 | 386 | 603 |
| October 09 2020 | 3486 | 28692 | 60 | 8 | 391 | 540 |
| October 10 2020 | 3516 | 28683 | 62 | 10 | 386 | 526 |
| October 11 2020 | 3535 | 28681 | 62 | 10 | 330 | 488 |
| October 12 2020 | 3566 | 28705 | 62 | 10 | 321 | 511 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.2% | 4 | 0.03% | 6 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 5.0 | 17.1% | 55 | 0.33% | 96 | 0.58% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 8.7 | 29% | 93 | 0.44% | 147 | 0.69% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 3.9 | 11.5% | 37 | 0.27% | 62 | 0.46% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 2.7 | 7.5% | 24 | 0.18% | 42 | 0.31% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 3.4 | 10% | 32 | 0.23% | 53 | 0.37% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 4.0 | 11.2% | 36 | 0.25% | 54 | 0.38% |
| 70+ | 4 | 4.6 | 12.5% | 40 | 0.31% | 51 | 0.39% |
| All ages | 31 | 32.9 | 100% | 321 | 0.27% | 511 | 0.43% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 06 2020 | 10671 | 203188 | 393 | 43 | 1183 | 1724 |
| October 07 2020 | 10734 | 204606 | 400 | 43 | 1127 | 1694 |
| October 08 2020 | 10841 | 206251 | 405 | 43 | 1078 | 1638 |
| October 09 2020 | 11035 | 207665 | 417 | 43 | 1178 | 1690 |
| October 10 2020 | 11240 | 208579 | 421 | 43 | 1111 | 1752 |
| October 11 2020 | 11421 | 208622 | 426 | 43 | 1220 | 1814 |
| October 12 2020 | 11585 | 209269 | 430 | 43 | 1368 | 1822 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 7.7 | 5.2% | 71 | 0.12% | 92 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 18 | 21.4 | 14.5% | 198 | 0.28% | 271 | 0.38% |
| 20-29 | 29 | 33.0 | 22% | 301 | 0.29% | 410 | 0.39% |
| 30-39 | 27 | 25.1 | 15.9% | 218 | 0.28% | 302 | 0.39% |
| 40-49 | 26 | 21.9 | 13.5% | 185 | 0.28% | 238 | 0.36% |
| 50-59 | 28 | 20.0 | 13.2% | 180 | 0.27% | 246 | 0.37% |
| 60-69 | 20 | 15.1 | 9.9% | 136 | 0.25% | 165 | 0.3% |
| 70+ | 9 | 8.7 | 5.8% | 79 | 0.16% | 98 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 164 | 153.0 | 100% | 1368 | 0.25% | 1822 | 0.33% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 06 2020 | 136379 | 1482116 | 7810 | 1399 | 22734 | 32209 |
| October 07 2020 | 138698 | 1493304 | 7951 | 1415 | 22836 | 32766 |
| October 08 2020 | 141830 | 1506828 | 8061 | 1424 | 24242 | 33506 |
| October 09 2020 | 144818 | 1518662 | 8199 | 1440 | 24863 | 33990 |
| October 10 2020 | 147560 | 1530306 | 8319 | 1458 | 25286 | 33915 |
| October 11 2020 | 150236 | 1537877 | 8398 | 1465 | 25075 | 34374 |
| October 12 2020 | 152192 | 1545692 | 8454 | 1474 | 24286 | 34604 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 70 | 83.6 | 3.3% | 808 | 0.13% | 1138 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 186 | 237.0 | 9.3% | 2259 | 0.3% | 3392 | 0.45% |
| 20-29 | 340 | 449.9 | 17.7% | 4302 | 0.57% | 6278 | 0.83% |
| 30-39 | 291 | 406.3 | 15.8% | 3839 | 0.51% | 5413 | 0.72% |
| 40-49 | 291 | 384.4 | 15% | 3654 | 0.52% | 5153 | 0.74% |
| 50-59 | 338 | 418.0 | 16.6% | 4040 | 0.5% | 5781 | 0.71% |
| 60-69 | 240 | 316.0 | 12.4% | 3014 | 0.4% | 4187 | 0.55% |
| 70+ | 200 | 252.4 | 9.8% | 2370 | 0.37% | 3262 | 0.51% |
| All ages | 1956 | 2547.6 | 100% | 24286 | 0.42% | 34604 | 0.59% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 59.5 | 55.9 | 35.4 | 40.3 | 8.1% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 26.3 | 13.9 | 16.1% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33.8 | 15.6 | 8.7 | 37.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43.2 | 58 | 69.1 | 32.9 | 52.4 | 10.2% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33.3 | 38.1 | 39.5 | 153 | 142.6 | 12.3% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59.4 | 44.8 | 82.9 | 2547.6 | 2405.3 | 19.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 18.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.37 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-02 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1621"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges